New paper on evaluating spatio-temporal predictions with Optimal Transport

Our paper “GeOT: A spatially explicit framework for evaluating spatio-temporal predictions”, is now published in the International Journal of Geographical Information Science (IJGIS)!

Motivation: While the GIS mantra “spatial is special” is widely acknowledged, it has not made its way into how we evaluate spatio-temporal predictions. Standard error metrics like MSE or MAE are typically averaged over locations, ignore the spatial structure of the data.

Contribution: To close this gap, we propose to leverage Optimal Transport (OT), a theoretical framework to compare two distributions. With OT, we can measure the difference between the true and predicted spatial distribution by computing the minimal transportation costs to align them.

Results: We show that our GeOT framework 1) effectively measures the spatial quality of predictions, 2) relates to spatial autocorrelation, and 3) provides interpretable results. On top of that, this approach is not just a new spatial evaluation metric – it can also be integrated as a loss function in machine learning tasks.

Check out our paper and code base with tutorials.

New paper on context-aware knowledge graph framework for traffic forecasting

Our new paper, titled “Context-Aware Knowledge Graph Framework for Traffic Speed Forecasting Using Graph Neural Networks,” has been accepted for publication in IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems.

This paper introduces a novel context-aware knowledge graph (CKG) framework to enhance traffic speed forecasting by effectively modeling spatial and temporal contexts. Using a relation-dependent integration strategy, the framework generates context-aware representations that capture the intricate spatio-temporal dependencies of urban environments.

Building on this foundation, a CKG-GNN model is developed, integrating the CKG, dual-view multi-head self-attention mechanisms, and graph neural networks (GNNs). This integration not only significantly improves predictive accuracy but also underscores the importance of contextual information in forecasting traffic dynamics.

By bridging domain knowledge with graph neural architectures, the proposed approach demonstrates its potential for advancing intelligent transportation systems.

Please check our paper and codes.

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New paper on optimal bike network planning

Our paper Bike Network Planning in Limited Urban Space was accepted for publication in Transportation Research Part B: Methodological!

This paper was part of the e-bike city project, a multidisciplinary initiative at the department exploring the effects of a radically changed urban road space with priority on cycling. Planning a suitable bike network is a core challenge in this project. In our paper, we introduce a novel optimization method for placing new bike lanes with minimal impact on other travel modes.

Our approach leverages the concept of Pareto-optimality: When car lanes are repurposed as bike lanes, car travel times inevitably increase. The key question is: By how much? Pareto-optimal solutions are the street networks that present the best trade-off between car accessibility and bikeability. To quantify bikeability, we introduce the concept of “perceived bike travel time”, based on research showing that cyclists perceive dedicated bike lanes as faster. Our experiments show that the optimization approach outperforms other methods by proposing networks that have both lower car travel times and lower perceived bike travel times.

Check out our paper or get in touch if you are interested to know more!

Further resources:

A New Tool for Transforming Urban Transportation Systems Without Building New Roads

A new paper titled “Designing an E-Bike City: An automated process for network-wide multimodal road space reallocation” was published in the Journal of Cycling and Micromobility Research.

How can we add transport capacity for rapidly growing urban populations? How can urban transportation systems be transformed for lower emissions within the short time available? In dense cities, adding transport infrastructure is expensive, takes many years of construction, and faces restrictions by historical buildings. Our research proposes a faster and cheaper approach: We have developed an automated tool that redesigns urban transportation systems only by reorganizing lanes on existing roads.

The SNMan – Street Network Manipulator is a new open-source software that allows researchers and planners to generate alternative transportation networks within existing road space. It can handle any scale, from individual blocks to entire cities. Depending on the goals set, it can add bike lanes, bus lanes, or green spaces, while reorganizing the rest so that buildings remain accessible by car and public transit remains functional. For example, Zurich’s roads could allocate 4x more space for cycling infrastructure while still satisfying these conditions.

Discover more in the recently published open-access paper!

Design steps applied to a single block.

New Paper on Understanding Complexity of Urban Traffic Prediction

A new paper titled “Enhancing Deep Learning-Based City-Wide Traffic Prediction Pipelines Through Complexity Analysis” was published in the journal Data Science for Transportation.

Our research introduces a novel metric that allows for the pre-modelling complexity evaluation of traffic prediction tasks. This metric, designed for computational efficiency and to be architecture-agnostic, assists in choosing the most suitable model for specific traffic scenarios. It advocates a shift from the traditional “bigger-is-better” approach in deep learning-based traffic prediction to a “just-enough” complexity model, optimizing both performance and resource utilization.

The findings enable a refined approach to modelling traffic prediction tasks, such as deciding between multiple chained predictions and a single-shot prediction. Furthermore, it allows for the segmentation of urban areas into regions of varying complexity, paving the way for deploying ensembles of models that better address diverse urban dynamics.

For more details on this transformative approach and its potential impacts on urban traffic management, check out our paper!

The same model, when trained on two datasets with differing intrinsic traffic complexities, achieves varying levels of effective model complexity during training.

New paper in Sustainable Cities and Society: socioeconomic explanations of global urban resilience

Urban resilience refers to the ability of urban systems to adapt and recover from external shocks, such as the recent global pandemic. Our new paper, titled “Leveraging Context-Adjusted Nighttime Light Data for Socioeconomic Explanations of Global Urban Resilience,” provides a comprehensive analysis of urban responses to COVID-19.

Using context-adjusted nighttime light data, our study models urban resilience during the pandemic, identifying five diverse patterns characterized by phases of downturn, minimum impact, and recovery. We also uncover significant correlations between socioeconomic factors and urban resilience, revealing that stringent measures may reduce resilience, while proactive health and containment strategies can enhance it. Furthermore, we delve into strategic socioeconomic interventions to enhance urban resilience using counterfactual explanations.

For more details, check out our paper!

New paper in the Journal of Big Data: Where you go is who you are

Location data is extremely sensitive, revealing where we spend how much time, what we like to do in our free time, and how we spend our money. Our new study titled “Where you go is who you are – A study on machine learning based semantic privacy attacks” sets out to answer a critical question: Just how much “semantic information” – that is, detailed and potentially sensitive insights into personal behavior – can be extracted from someone’s location data using machine learning techniques, especially when this data might be inaccurate or incomplete?

To address this question, we conducted a study using a dataset of location visits from a social network, Foursquare, where the category of the location (e.g., “dining” / “sports” / “nightlife”) is known. We simulate the following scenario: An attacker only knows the geographic coordinates and time of a location visit, and trains a machine learning model to infer the place category. Crucially, the geographic coordiates can be imprecise due to GPS inaccuracies or protection measures. This is simulated by obfuscating the true geographic coordinates with varying radius.

Our experiments reveal a significant privacy risk even with imprecise location data. Although the accuracy of the attacker decreases exponentially with the obfuscation radius, there remains a high privacy loss even if the coordinates are perturbed by up to 200m. A certain risk remains from the temporal information alone. These findings highlight the privacy risks associated with the growing databases of tracking and spatial context data, urging policy-makers towards stricter regulations.

Check out our paper and source code!

New JTRG paper online – Travel mode detection

Our new paper entitled “Evaluating geospatial context information for travel mode detection” was accepted at Journal of Transport Geography and is now available (open-access!) online.

How much does geospatial context information contribute to travel mode detection?

Our latest study reveals that geospatial network features, such as distance to the road network, are more critical than motion features, such as speed and acceleration, when classifying an extensive list of travel modes. Still, most land-use and land-cover features barely contribute to the task. The results are based on our extensive context representation reviews and the proposed analytical pipeline to assess the contribution of geospatial context information based on a random forest model and the SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) method.

The study provides valuable guidance for feature selection, effective feature design, and building efficient travel mode detection models.

Check out the paper online and the corresponding code on Github!